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US GDP

This page has provides charts on current US GDP growth and predictions for next quarter.

US GDP provides total monetary values of all finished goods and services made within US during any financial period.

There are two known approaches to GDP calculation.

  • Income approach: For any given period, this is the total income earned by households, private companies and the government.
  • Expenditure approach: This is the total amount spent on producing goods and services for any given period.
Apart from the fact that the goods and services included in GDP calculation are produced during the calculation period, their value should be determined by selling in the market. This market value is included in GDP calculation.
What is included What is not included
  1. All final goods and services produced in the period whose market value can be determined.
  1. Transfer payments from the Government to individuals (eg. unemployment, welfare, etc payments).
  2. Purchases of equipment, houses or automobiles produced during a period.
  3. Capital gains on individual's assets are excluded if not sold in the market.
  4. Certain types of labor such as gardening and commuting for which market value cannot be determined.
  5. By-products of a manufacturing for which market value cannot be obtained are excluded.
  6. Intermediate products in the manufacturing process are also excluded as their prices are already reflected in the final price of the goods/services sold in the market.

GDP is measured as nominal GDP and real GDP. Nominal GDP uses current prices in the calculations, while real GDP is measured by adjusting for inflation by comparing with prices of good and services at a set base year. Our predictions are for nominal GDP.

US GDP data is calculated and published by Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) which works under US Department of Commerce. BEA link to GDP is here.

Our GDP Growth Predictions

Earnsmart's current practice is to predict the most recent quarter for which GDP growth is unknown. When BEA publishes that quarter's GDP number, we proceed with predicting next quarter's GDP number and growth rate.